期刊简介
《国际安全》（International Security）发表有关当代安全问题的全面清晰、文献翔实的文章。文章涉及战争与和平的传统主题，以及安全的最新层面，包括环境、人口、人道主义问题、跨国网络和新兴技术。40多年来，《国际安全》界定了美国国家安全政策的争论，并为国际安全事务的研究制定了议程。2024年该期刊的影响因子为7.486。
本期目录
1
给乌克兰的“核保护伞”？战后欧洲安全的前例与可能性
A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security
2
我们都会倒下：华沙条约组织的解体与东欧冷战的终结
We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe
3
外来干涉与国内流离失所：战后贝鲁特的城市政治
Foreign Intervention and Internal Displacement: Urban Politics in Postwar Beirut
4
驯服叛乱：1830-1929年南美政治暴力的下降
Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929
内容摘要
给乌克兰的“核保护伞”？战后欧洲安全的前例与可能性
题目：A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security
作者：Matthew Evangelista, 康奈尔大学康奈尔大学怀特总统历史与政治学教授。
摘要：无论俄乌战争的结果如何，战后乌克兰将需要选择一种安全政策，以保护其主权免受未来的威胁。其选择对整个欧洲的安全具有影响。一些观察家建议乌克兰加入北大西洋公约组织（NATO），从而获得美国“核保护伞”的保护。其他人则对“延伸核威慑”——即美国为其盟国领土遭受攻击（包括常规武器攻击）时作出核报复的威胁——的有效性表示怀疑。然而，在冷战时期的欧洲，核威慑从未被真正检验过，今天，延伸核威慑在面对俄罗斯入侵时是一种不可靠且有风险的方式。1961年柏林危机期间核威慑的作用显示，苏联的军事战略对抗美国的核武器可能引发局势升级。而在脆弱的北约领土，如爱沙尼亚的纳尔瓦市，这种风险仍然存在。冷战时期的一种核威慑替代方案为乌克兰提供了非核防御的可能性。诸如基于安全困境和非进攻性、信任建设的防御理念“蜘蛛网”策略等提议，能够在处于俄罗斯扩张威胁中的欧洲为乌克兰提供安全保障，而不依赖于核战争的威胁。
Whatever the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War, in its wake Ukraine will need to choose a security policy to defend its sovereignty from future threats. Its choice holds implications for broader European security. Some observers advocate Ukraine becoming a member in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), thereby gaining protection from the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.” Others doubt the effectiveness of “extended nuclear deterrence”—the threat of U.S. nuclear retaliation for attacks, including those carried out with conventional armed forces, on an ally's territory. But nuclear deterrence was never put to the test in Cold War Europe, and today extended nuclear deterrence is an unreliable and risky approach to Russian aggression. An examination of the role of nuclear deterrence during the 1961 Berlin Crisis demonstrates that Soviet military strategy against U.S. nuclear weapons posed the risk of escalation. In vulnerable NATO territories, such as the Estonian city of Narva, such a risk still exists. A Cold War–era alternative to nuclear deterrence offers the possibility of a non-nuclear defense for Ukraine. Proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy draw on concepts of the security dilemma and non-offensive, confidence-building defense to provide for Ukrainian security in a Europe threatened by Russian expansion, without relying on the threat of nuclear war.
我们都会倒下：华沙条约组织的解体与东欧冷战的终结
题目：We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe
作者：Simon Miles, 杜克大学桑福德公共政策学院助理教授。
摘要：利用捷克、德国、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚的档案资料，本文重建了冷战结束时东欧外交的情况。这些档案显示，推动这一关键时期事件发展的不仅仅是超级大国，华沙条约组织的非苏联成员国也发挥了作用。1989年至1991年间，这些国家意识到世界正在变化，与苏联的关系（通过华沙条约组织政治-军事联盟加以明确）会妨碍它们在后冷战世界中的成功。东欧决策者决定摧毁束缚它们与苏联关系的华沙条约，并决定与西欧结盟。他们还试图将苏联排除在欧洲安全架构之外，包括欧洲安全与合作会议。他们不仅寻求安全保障，还希望防范苏联发生强硬派政变；但其主要目标是获取西方的经济利益。
Using new evidence from Czech, German, Hungarian, Polish, and Romanian archives, a reconstruction of Eastern European diplomacy at the end of the Cold War shows that it was not just the superpowers that shaped events during this pivotal period: the non-Soviet members of the Warsaw Pact also had agency. From 1989 to 1991, these states recognized that the world was changing and that their relationship with the Soviet Union, codified in the Warsaw Pact politico-military alliance, would impede their success in the post–Cold War world. Eastern European policymakers resolved to destroy the Warsaw Pact that bound them to the Soviet Union, and they decided to align with Western Europe. They also sought to exclude the Soviet Union from the European security architecture, including the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe. They sought security and wanted to hedge against a hard-line takeover in the Soviet Union; but their primary aim was to reap the West's economic benefits.
外来干涉与国内流离失所：战后贝鲁特的城市政治
题目：Foreign Intervention and Internal Displacement: Urban Politics in Postwar Beirut
作者：Amanda Rizkallah, 佩珀代因大学国际研究助理教授。
摘要：不均衡的民主化是内战遗留的一个常见但不太为人所知的现象。黎巴嫩内战（1975-1990）结束后，战争中的流离失所过程与叙利亚的干预结合在一起，改变了战后地方政治秩序。在贝鲁特郊区，武装分子与流离失所人口之间的联系为这些弱势群体从地方机构中获得回应性创造了机会。然而，流离失所人口在其寄居社区的权力取决于当地主导武装分子的命运。如果武装分子是干预力量的盟友，他们可以继续控制其据点，边缘化传统的地方精英，同时赋权于其核心支持者——流离失所者。相反，如果武装分子受到干预力量的打压，随之而来的权力真空为多元化政党政治的兴起提供了机会。传统的战前精英重新在地方政治生活中发挥作用，赋权于其核心支持者——战前居民。通过数十次对战后贝鲁特郊区关键信息提供者的深入访谈，这些研究发现表明，流离失所如何以超越宗教认同的方式改变地方。自2023年10月7日以来，南黎巴嫩已有超过8万人因战斗而流离失所。如果真主党为这些流离失所者提供服务和安全保障，当前的冲突将加强真主党对南黎巴嫩的控制，或者在流离失所者定居的南黎巴嫩地区进一步巩固其影响力。
Uneven democratization is a common yet poorly understood legacy of civil war. In the aftermath of the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990), wartime processes of displacement interacted with Syria's intervention to transform local postwar political orders. In Beirut's suburbs, the bonds built between armed actors and displaced populations created opportunities for displaced people to extract responsiveness from local institutions, despite their vulnerability. But the power of displaced populations in their host community hinges on the fate of the locally dominant armed actor. If the armed actor is an ally of the intervening power, it can maintain political control over its strongholds, marginalizing traditional local elites while empowering its core constituents, displaced people. By contrast, if an armed actor is repressed by the intervening power, the ensuing power vacuum creates an opportunity for pluralistic party politics to emerge. Traditional prewar elites reassert their role in local political life, empowering their core constituents, the prewar residents. Drawing on dozens of in-depth interviews with key informants in the suburbs of postwar Beirut, the findings show how displacement transformed localities in ways that transcend religious identity. Over 80,000 people have been displaced from southern Lebanon because of fighting since October 7, 2023. If Hezbollah provides services and security to these displaced persons, the current conflict will strengthen Hezbollah's grip on the south of Lebanon when the displaced populations return, or further consolidate its influence in those localities in south Lebanon where displaced populations settle.
驯服叛乱：1830-1929年南美政治暴力的下降
题目：Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929
作者：Raúl L. Madrid, 德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校文科哈罗德-C.和爱丽丝-T.-诺林执教教授；Luis L. Schenoni, 伦敦大学学院政治学系助理教授。
摘要：在19世纪，南美洲饱受内部叛乱的困扰，这些叛乱动摇了该地区的经济和政治体系。然而，进入20世纪初，整个地区的政治暴力水平显著下降。现有的研究对此历史性转变关注甚少，部分原因是缺乏叛乱的全面数据。通过对1830年至1929年间南美所有叛乱的综合新数据集的分析显示，这一时期叛乱的减少在很大程度上源于该地区军队的扩张和职业化，而这又是由出口繁荣和跨国冲突威胁所推动的。然而，正如一项对叛乱的原创性分类所示，并非所有类型的叛乱在此期间都急剧减少。虽然该地区武装部队的加强抑制了非国家行为者的叛乱，但并没有显著减少来自国家内部的叛乱，如军事政变。
During the nineteenth century, South America was plagued by internal rebellions that destabilized the region's economies and political systems. At the beginning of the twentieth century, however, levels of political violence throughout the region declined dramatically. Existing scholarship has paid surprisingly little attention to this historic transformation, in part because comprehensive data on revolts have been lacking. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset on all revolts in South America from 1830 to 1929 show that the decline in revolts stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region's militaries, which were driven by the export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. Nevertheless, not all types of rebellions declined precipitously during this period, as an original typology of revolts shows. Although the strengthening of the region's armed forces discouraged revolts by non-state actors, it did not significantly reduce rebellions from within the state apparatus, such as military coups.
编译 | 柳博文
审校 | 赖永桢
排版 | 张可儿
本文源于《国际安全》(International Security), Vol.48, No.3, 2024，本文为公益分享，服务于科研教学，不代表本平台观点。如有疏漏，欢迎指正。
